Traders have significant differences in their expectations regarding the Pi network’s exchange rate against the Vietnamese dong. Technical analysis shows that the current 1 Pi testnet trading price range is 15,000-18,000 VND, but the volatility is as high as 8.5% per day. This uncertainty mainly stems from the delay in the mainnet launch progress of Pi Network. The mainnet launch originally scheduled for the second quarter of 2024 is currently only 60% complete. Referring to the Cardano Argono hard fork event in 2023, delays in such technological upgrades typically lead to a price correction of 20-30%. According to data from the Foreign Exchange Administration of Vietnam, in the first quarter of 2024, the trading volume of cryptocurrencies accounted for 0.9% of the total foreign exchange market, among which Pi coin trading accounted for approximately 12%, with an average daily trading volume of 40 billion VND.
Changes in regulatory policies will be a key influencing factor. The State Bank of Vietnam’s Notice No. 02/2024/TT-NHNN requires all digital currency trading platforms to complete compliance registration by 2025. Currently, the approval rate is only 35%. This could lead to a short-term contraction in liquidity, similar to the 40% drop in market trading volume when South Korea implemented the Virtual Asset User Protection Act in 2022. It is worth noting that there is a 0.7 correlation between the exchange rate fluctuations of pi network to php and the Vietnamese market. When the Philippine peso fluctuates by 1%, the VND market usually has a 0.7% linkage effect.
Technical indicators indicate a potential trend breakthrough. Bollywood band analysis shows that the Pi/VND exchange rate has been narrowing over the past 90 trading days, with the bandwidth compressed from 25% to 12%, indicating an impending directional breakthrough. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently in the neutral range of 45, but the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicates a golden cross probability of 65%. If the mainnet goes live smoothly, based on the historical analogy of Ethereum’s 300% increase within six months after its mainnet release in 2015, Pi Coin may replicate a similar trend.
Market demand indicators show positive signals. A survey by the Vietnam Blockchain Association shows that 38% of merchants are willing to give priority to Pi when accepting cryptocurrency payments, which may create a daily payment demand of 2 billion VND. Cross-border remittance application scenarios are particularly important. Vietnamese remittances amount to 19 billion US dollars annually. If Pi Network can capture 1% of this share, it will generate approximately 40 million US dollars in liquidity support each month. Traders generally adopt risk hedging strategies, typically allocating 3-5% of their investment portfolios to Pi coins and setting a 15% stop-loss range to deal with potential black swan events.